Talk page
Title:
Can Future Energy Needs be Met Sustainably?
Speaker:
Abstract:
Global energy consumption is increasing rapidly, driven by rising living standards in developing countries. The energy provided by burning fossil fuels is also increasing, albeit not as fast as total energy use. This is unsustainable, and decarbonisation is imperative – to reduce air pollution, rebalance relations between oil producing and importing countries, and moderate climate change. It will be possible, but fossil fuels still provide some 80% of primary energy and decarbonisation will take a long time. I will review the technical, economic and political challenges. Slightly more primary energy ends up as heat than as electricity, with transport some way behind. Decarbonising heat will be extremely difficult. Decarbonising electricity will be easier thanks to the rapidly falling costs of wind and solar power. However, cost is not the same as value for variable sources, integrating them with other sources will add to costs as their contributions increase, and new market models will be required to produce the optimal mixture of measures that will be needed (storage, larger and smarter grids, demand side measures and flexible back-up). Decarbonising transport looks relatively straightforward (at least road transport, which is the major energy user), althoughthere are many uncertainties. I will conclude by discussing whether we are approaching an energy tipping-point.
Link:
Workshop: